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Jeff Gundlach has been a recurring presence in the financial press over the past couple of weeks due to his ninth consecutive appearance at Sohn, to an ensuing interview with CNBC, as well as his latest web presentation. 

而最近在纽约举行的双线活动上,冈德拉克和Quill intelligence创始人丹妮尔•迪马蒂诺•布斯都坐下来接受了由冈德拉克公司的副首席投资官杰夫•舍曼主持的一次谈话。90分钟的讨论涉及冈德拉克对美国无资金准备债务真正规模、赤字不断扩大前景及其可能在不远的将来给美国经济造成严重问题、公司债市场的内在风险、杰罗姆·鲍威尔的“洗脑”、学生贷款危机和MOVE 指数骤升前景的警告,以及其他许多话题。

During a recent DoubleLine event in New York, both Gundlach and Quill intelligence founder Danielle DiMartino Booth sat down for a talk moderated by Jeff Sherman, deputy CIO at Gundlach's firm. The 90-minute discussion involved Gundlach's warnings about the true magnitude of America's unfunded liabilities, the prospect for a permanently wider deficit and the possibility that this could create serious problems for the American economy in the not-too-distant future, the risks inherent in the corporate bond market, the 'brainwashing' of Jerome Powell, the student-loan crisis, the prospects for an uptick in the MOVE index, and many other topics.



First, Gundlach and Sherman started the conversation with a remark about the modern markets landscape resembling 'the Twilight Zone' thanks to President Trump's insistence on rate cuts.

"It's like the Twilight Zone," Gundlach said.


He then cited an interview with Mike Pence on CNBC earlier this month where the vice president praised the 'roaring' economy, before calling for 100 bps rate cut. But the fact that Trump has shifted to an ultra-dovish stance, from his once-hawkish campaign-era Fed bashing, is hardly surprising.


“When I predicted before the primary started in 2016 at Donald Trump was gonna win...But I also said that Donald Trump loves debt and he’s never paid back debt, I think, ever. And he's gone bankrupt…so you can bet dollars to doughnuts that he’ll expand the deficit.”


When explaining his market outlook, Gundlach warned that central banks have muddied the waters with their stimulus. Because of this, it has become just as easy to make the case for interest rates to soar as it is to make the case that they'll sink.


He then moved on to reiterate his big trade recommendation from his latest Sohn appearance: That is, going long bond market volatility, following one of the most tranquil periods for Treasuries in recent memory.


"We're in this really weird world where almost anything can happen. What you want to do is bet on this unstable situation finally devolving into one of the two outcomes, and volatility on equities and bonds (until recently) has been near all time lows. Where is this going to end? One of these binary outcomes has to happen, so I think this is the time to be betting pretty heavily - on stocks you're two days late - but the MOVE Index (which tracks Treasury market volatility)."

冈德拉克和布斯都对美联储提出了严厉的批评,因为联储屈从于白宫对祭出更多刺激措施的期望。更重要的是,以前拥有“自由思维”的鲍威尔已经被塑造成另一位保守的央行官员……布斯一度称他为“几乎是另一个珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen,前任美联储主席)”。

Both Gundlach and Booth had some harsh words for the Fed, which has bowed to the White House's wishes for more stimulus. What's more, the formerly 'free thinking' Powell has been molded into another establishment central banker...at one point Booth described him as "basically Janet Yellen."


"Jay Powell has been programmed to think the way central bankers think and that takes away from his ability to be a real person," Booth said.


Moving on, the two speakers shared their views about another popular theme in Gundlach's more recent remarks: risks emanating from the corporate bond market. The increasingly leveraged BBB companies could be on the verge of a destabilizing crash as 'fallen angels' drop out from investment-grade indexes after being downgraded once the ratings firms can no longer ignore their worsening leverage ratio.


"I think Jay Powell has his eye on the credit markets...broker dealer balance sheets don't have the cushion they used to have...there's no capacity in the financial system for a run on bond ETFs," Booth said.


"In the old days, when retail would sell...dealers would balloon up their balance sheets...it was actually a great money maker. They can't do that anymore - this shock absorber has been destroyed," Gundlach added.